Google Ads Permits Prediction Market Ads in the US, Then Bars Michigan and New York
Google Ads opened US prediction market ads to federally regulated entities on January 21, 2026, then prohibited them in Michigan and New York from July 13, 2026. What the policy says.
On January 21, 2026, Google updated its advertising policies to permit ads for prediction markets in the United States, but only for federally regulated entities (CFTC-authorized Designated Contract Markets or NFA-authorized brokerages) with Google certification. Effective July 13, 2026, Google prohibited prediction market ads in Michigan and New York.
What Changed
Google made two changes to its prediction markets advertising policy in the United States in 2026. In January it opened the category to federally regulated entities. In July it carved two states out of that permission.
| Date | Change | Scope |
|---|---|---|
| January 21, 2026 | Prediction market ads permitted for federally regulated entities, with Google certification | United States |
| July 13, 2026 | Prediction market ads prohibited | Michigan and New York |
January 2026: Permitted for Regulated Entities
"Google is updating its advertising policies on January 21, 2026, to permit ads for Prediction Markets [...] in the United States, but only for federally regulated entities.
— Google Ads Help, Update to Prediction Markets (January 2026)"
The policy defines eligible entities as those authorized by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a Designated Contract Market (DCM) whose primary business is listing exchange-listed event contracts, or those authorized as a brokerage by the National Futures Association (NFA) to offer access to such a DCM. The page states that advertisers "must apply for certification through Google to run ads targeting the United States."
For Google's wider rules, see our Google Ads policy guide.
July 2026: Michigan and New York Excluded
"Consequently, advertising of prediction markets and related products in Michigan and New York is prohibited effective July 13, 2026.
— Google Ads Help, Update to Prediction Markets (July 2026)"
The July update narrows the January permission. Outside Michigan and New York, the January conditions continue to apply as stated on Google's policy pages.
What We Know and What We Don't
| Known (from Google's policy pages) | Not known |
|---|---|
| The January 21, 2026 permission and its eligibility conditions; the July 13, 2026 prohibition in Michigan and New York. | Why Google excluded these two states; whether other states will be added; how many advertisers have been certified. |
Follow further changes on the Policy Tracker.
Frequently Asked Questions
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Are prediction market ads allowed in New York or Michigan?
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