Google Ads Prediction Markets Ban 2026: Michigan & NY

Quick Answer

Effective July 13, 2026, Google updated its Prediction markets policy to prohibit the advertising of prediction markets and related products in Michigan and New York. The change is geographic and state-specific: it does not ban prediction markets advertising everywhere, but it makes such ads prohibited when they are served to users in those two US states, covering both prediction market contracts themselves and related product advertisements. Prediction markets — sometimes called event contracts — let people take positions on the outcome of future events, and their rapid growth has drawn scrutiny from state regulators over whether some of these products function like unlicensed gambling within their borders. Google's move mirrors how it already handles gambling and other regulated categories: rather than a blanket global rule, it applies location-based restrictions that reflect the legal position in each jurisdiction, and here it has added Michigan and New York to the list of locations where prediction markets ads are not allowed. For advertisers, the practical requirement is precise geo-targeting and exclusion: campaigns promoting prediction markets or related products must not deliver to users in Michigan or New York, and advertisers should audit targeting, exclusions and location settings to ensure compliance. Running prohibited ads risks disapprovals and, for repeated or serious violations, account-level enforcement. Because the list of restricted locations can expand as more states act, advertisers in this category should monitor the policy closely. Review the framework in the Google Ads policy guide, map jurisdiction-specific exposure with the Legal Compliance Scan, and track changes on the Policy Change Tracker.

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Google Ads Prohibits Prediction Markets Advertising in Michigan and New York from July 2026: A State-Level Compliance Guide for Advertisers

What Google Changed in July 2026

Effective July 13, 2026, Google updated its Prediction markets policy to prohibit the advertising of prediction markets and related products in Michigan and New York. The update is narrow in one sense — it targets a specific category of product in two specific US states — but it is important for any advertiser in the prediction markets space, and it illustrates a broader pattern in how Google regulates sensitive categories through location-based rules.

Prediction markets, also described as event contracts, allow users to take positions on the outcome of future events. Their fast growth has put them under regulatory scrutiny in the United States, where the question of whether particular products function as unlicensed gambling within a given state has become contested. Google's response is characteristic of how it handles regulated categories: instead of a single global rule, it applies restrictions that reflect the legal position in each jurisdiction, and here it has added Michigan and New York to the locations where these ads are not permitted.

"The advertising of prediction markets and related products in Michigan and New York is prohibited.
— Google Ads, Prediction markets policy update (effective July 13, 2026)"

This guide explains exactly what the policy prohibits and where, why prediction markets attract state-level restrictions, how Google enforces geographic ad rules, and what advertisers must do to stay compliant. For the overarching policy framework, see the Google Ads policy guide, and track further changes on the Policy Change Tracker.

What Is Prohibited and Where

The policy is precise about both what it covers and where it applies. Getting these two dimensions right is the whole of compliance, because the restriction is defined by product category and by geography together.

The Scope of the Restriction

Dimension	Detail
What is prohibited	Advertising of prediction markets and related products
Where it applies	Michigan and New York (United States)
Effective date	July 13, 2026
What it is not	Not a global ban — the restriction is location-specific to these two states

Two points deserve emphasis. First, the prohibition covers not only prediction market contracts themselves but also "related products," a broader phrase that advertisers should read carefully rather than assume applies only to a narrow set of instruments. If an advertiser is uncertain whether a given product counts as a related product, the conservative course is to treat it as in scope for these states until confirmed otherwise. Second, the restriction is geographic: prediction markets advertising is not prohibited everywhere by this update, but it is prohibited when served to users in Michigan or New York. That makes accurate location targeting the central compliance task. Screen ad copy and product descriptions for risk with the Keyword Risk Checker.

Why Prediction Markets Face State Restrictions

To understand why Google is adding states to this policy, it helps to understand the regulatory backdrop. Prediction markets sit in a contested space between financial products and gambling, and that ambiguity is exactly what drives jurisdiction-by-jurisdiction restrictions.

The Regulatory Backdrop

A contested category: prediction markets let users stake positions on future events, and regulators have questioned whether some products function as unlicensed gambling within their borders.
State-by-state divergence: the United States regulates gambling largely at the state level, so the legal status of a given product can differ between states, producing exactly the kind of patchwork that leads to location-specific ad rules.
Platforms follow the law of the location: advertising platforms typically restrict regulated categories according to where an ad is served, which is why a product can be advertisable in one state and prohibited in another.
An evolving list: because state positions are still developing, the set of locations where such ads are restricted can grow over time.

The addition of Michigan and New York should therefore be read as a snapshot of where the policy stands as of July 2026, not necessarily its final form. Advertisers in this category should expect the possibility of further states being added and should treat close monitoring of the policy as part of their ongoing compliance rather than a one-time check. This dynamic mirrors how gambling and betting advertising is governed generally; see the sector view in the gambling and betting regulations guide for the wider framework of licensing and geographic control. Note that this article describes Google's advertising policy, not the underlying legality of any product in any state, which advertisers must confirm with qualified legal counsel.

How Google Enforces Geographic Ad Restrictions

Location-based prohibitions like this one are enforced through Google's geo-targeting and location systems. Understanding the mechanics matters, because compliance depends on how ads are matched to user locations rather than only on where an advertiser is based.

The Mechanics That Matter

Delivery location is what counts: the prohibition applies to ads served to users in Michigan and New York, so it is the audience's location, not the advertiser's, that determines whether an ad is allowed.
Location targeting and exclusions: advertisers control geographic delivery through location settings, and excluding the prohibited states is the primary compliance lever.
Broad targeting is a trap: nationwide or unspecified location targeting will reach the prohibited states by default, so relying on broad settings without explicit exclusions creates exposure.
Related products are included: the restriction reaches related products, so the geographic controls must cover the full set of relevant campaigns, not just those explicitly labeled as prediction markets.

The practical upshot is that advertisers must configure and verify location settings deliberately. An advertiser running a national campaign for a prediction markets product cannot assume compliance simply because most of its audience is elsewhere; if the campaign can deliver to Michigan or New York, it is exposed. The safe configuration is explicit exclusion of the prohibited states across every campaign that touches prediction markets or related products, followed by verification that the exclusions are actually in force. Map multi-jurisdiction exposure across your campaigns with the Legal Compliance Scan, and audit account-wide settings with the AI Compliance Audit.

What Advertisers Must Do

For advertisers in the prediction markets category, compliance with this update is concrete and actionable. The task is to ensure no prohibited ad reaches users in the two named states, and to build a process that keeps pace as the policy evolves.

The Compliance Actions

Audit every relevant campaign: identify all campaigns promoting prediction markets or related products, including any that might fall under the broader "related products" language.
Exclude Michigan and New York: apply explicit location exclusions for both states across those campaigns, rather than relying on default or broad targeting.
Verify the exclusions: confirm through the campaign settings that the exclusions are active and correctly configured, and re-check after any campaign edit.
Monitor for expansion: because the restricted-locations list can grow, set up a routine to track policy updates and add states as needed.
Separate legal and platform compliance: treat Google's ad policy and the underlying legality of the product as distinct questions, confirming the latter with legal counsel.

The consequence of getting this wrong is real. Running prohibited ads can lead to disapprovals, and for repeated or serious policy violations Google can take account-level enforcement action, which is a far larger problem than a single rejected ad. Advertisers in sensitive categories generally operate with less margin for error, so a disciplined, verified approach to geographic compliance is not optional here. Because the policy can change and locations can be added, verify the current scope against Google's official Prediction markets policy before finalizing campaigns, and see how the relevant terms are defined in the compliance glossary.

Prediction Markets Ad Compliance Checklist

[ ] Identified all campaigns promoting prediction markets or related products
[ ] Interpreted "related products" conservatively and included borderline products in scope
[ ] Applied explicit location exclusions for Michigan and New York across those campaigns
[ ] Replaced broad or nationwide targeting with verified, exclusion-aware settings
[ ] Confirmed the exclusions are active in the campaign settings
[ ] Re-checked exclusions after every campaign edit
[ ] Set up monitoring for additions to the restricted-locations list
[ ] Confirmed the underlying product legality with qualified legal counsel
[ ] Documented the geographic-compliance process as evidence
[ ] Verified the current scope against Google's official Prediction markets policy

Frequently Asked Questions

What exactly did Google prohibit in its July 2026 Prediction markets policy update?

Effective July 13, 2026, Google updated its Prediction markets policy to prohibit the advertising of prediction markets and related products in Michigan and New York, and the precise scope of that prohibition is defined by two dimensions together: what it covers and where it applies. On the 'what,' the restriction reaches both prediction market contracts themselves and 'related products' — a deliberately broader phrase that advertisers should not read narrowly. If an advertiser markets an instrument or offering connected to prediction markets and is unsure whether it counts as a related product, the conservative and safer interpretation is to treat it as in scope for the affected states until confirmed otherwise, because guessing wrong in the permissive direction risks running prohibited ads. On the 'where,' this is a location-specific rule, not a global ban. Prediction markets advertising is not prohibited everywhere by this update; it is prohibited when the ad is served to users in Michigan or New York. That distinction is central, because it means the compliance task is fundamentally about geographic targeting — ensuring that campaigns promoting prediction markets or related products do not deliver to users in those two states. The effective date of July 13, 2026 marks when the prohibition took force, so campaigns running in or after that period must respect it. It is also worth understanding what this update is not: it is not a statement about the underlying legality of prediction markets in any state, which is a separate legal question, and it is not necessarily the final form of the policy, since the list of restricted locations can grow as more states take positions. Advertisers should therefore treat Michigan and New York as the current scope while remaining alert to expansion. The practical response is to audit all relevant campaigns, apply and verify location exclusions for the two states, and monitor the policy for changes. Review the broader rulebook in the Google Ads policy guide, screen product descriptions with the Keyword Risk Checker, and track updates on the Policy Change Tracker. The organizing principle is that Google now prohibits advertising of prediction markets and related products when served to users in Michigan and New York, effective July 13, 2026, while leaving the rule location-specific rather than global.

Why are prediction markets facing advertising restrictions at the state level?

Prediction markets face advertising restrictions at the state level because they occupy a contested space between financial products and gambling, and because gambling in the United States is regulated largely state by state, which together produce a patchwork in which the legal status of a given product can differ across jurisdictions and drive location-specific ad rules like Google's. Prediction markets, sometimes called event contracts, let users take positions on the outcome of future events. That structure resembles both financial derivatives and wagering, and the resemblance is precisely what makes them regulatorily ambiguous. Regulators in various states have questioned whether particular prediction market products function as unlicensed gambling within their borders, and because the United States does not have a single national answer to that question, different states can reach different conclusions. The result is a jurisdiction-by-jurisdiction landscape rather than a uniform national rule. Advertising platforms respond to this landscape in a characteristic way: they restrict regulated categories according to where an ad is served, aligning ad delivery with the legal position in each location. This is why a product can be advertisable in one state and prohibited in another, and why Google's approach here is to add specific states — Michigan and New York — to the list of locations where prediction markets ads are not allowed, rather than imposing a blanket global rule. The same logic governs how gambling and betting advertising is handled generally, where licensing requirements and geographic controls vary widely by jurisdiction. Because state positions on prediction markets are still evolving, the set of restricted locations is not fixed; it can grow as more states act, which means the addition of Michigan and New York should be read as a July 2026 snapshot rather than a settled final list. For advertisers, the important implication is that compliance in this category is inherently dynamic: it requires monitoring the policy for new restricted states and adjusting campaigns accordingly, not a single configuration set once and forgotten. It is also essential to keep two questions separate — Google's advertising policy on the one hand, and the actual legality of a product in a given state on the other. This article addresses the former; the latter must be confirmed with qualified legal counsel. See the wider framework in the gambling and betting regulations guide and map exposure with the Legal Compliance Scan. The organizing principle is that prediction markets face state-level ad restrictions because their contested legal status interacts with America's state-by-state gambling regulation, producing a growing, location-specific patchwork.

How should advertisers configure campaigns to comply with the Michigan and New York prohibition?

Advertisers should comply with the Michigan and New York prohibition by treating accurate geographic targeting as the central compliance task — specifically, by applying explicit location exclusions for both states across every campaign that promotes prediction markets or related products, and then verifying that those exclusions are actually in force. The reason geographic configuration is the heart of compliance is that the prohibition is defined by delivery location: it applies to ads served to users in Michigan and New York, so it is the audience's location, not the advertiser's, that determines whether an ad is permitted. This has a critical practical consequence — broad or nationwide targeting is a trap. A campaign that targets the whole United States, or that leaves location settings unspecified, will by default be eligible to deliver to users in the prohibited states, which means relying on broad settings without explicit exclusions creates direct exposure even if the advertiser never intended to reach those states. The correct configuration is therefore deliberate exclusion. For every campaign that touches prediction markets or related products, the advertiser should add Michigan and New York as excluded locations, rather than assuming that a national or default setting is acceptable. Because the prohibition extends to 'related products,' the exclusions must cover the full set of relevant campaigns, not only those explicitly labeled as prediction markets — an advertiser who excludes the states on their obvious prediction markets campaigns but overlooks a related-product campaign has not achieved compliance. After applying exclusions, verification is essential: the advertiser should confirm through the campaign settings that the exclusions are active and correctly configured, and should re-check after any campaign edit, since changes can inadvertently alter location settings. This is not a one-time task. Because the restricted-locations list can expand as more states act, advertisers should build a routine to monitor the policy and add new states to their exclusions as needed. Finally, advertisers should keep platform compliance and legal compliance distinct: excluding the states satisfies Google's ad policy, but the underlying legality of the product in any jurisdiction is a separate question for legal counsel. Map multi-jurisdiction exposure with the Legal Compliance Scan, audit settings with the AI Compliance Audit, and verify scope against Google's official Prediction markets policy. The organizing principle is that compliance depends on explicit, verified location exclusions for Michigan and New York across all prediction markets and related-product campaigns, maintained as the policy evolves.

What happens if an advertiser runs prohibited prediction markets ads in these states?

If an advertiser runs prohibited prediction markets ads to users in Michigan or New York, the immediate consequence is that those ads can be disapproved, and for repeated or serious policy violations Google can escalate to account-level enforcement — a substantially more damaging outcome than a single rejected ad — which is why disciplined geographic compliance matters in this category. At the first level, an ad that violates the prohibition can be disapproved, meaning it will not run. A single disapproval is a manageable event: the advertiser corrects the targeting or the ad and moves on. But treating disapprovals as the only risk underestimates the exposure, because platforms generally respond to patterns of violation, not just individual ads. Where violations are repeated, or where the platform judges conduct to be serious, enforcement can move to the account level. Account-level enforcement can jeopardize an advertiser's entire presence on the platform, not merely one campaign, and recovering from it is far harder than fixing a rejected ad. For an advertiser whose business depends on Google Ads, that is a serious operational risk. Advertisers in sensitive and regulated categories generally operate with less margin for error than mainstream advertisers, because their products attract closer scrutiny and their violations are viewed more seriously. That reduced margin makes a proactive, verified compliance approach essential rather than optional. The prudent posture is to prevent prohibited delivery entirely — through explicit, verified location exclusions across all relevant campaigns — rather than to rely on catching disapprovals after the fact. Prevention is cheaper and safer than remediation. It is also worth keeping good records: documenting the geographic-compliance process, the exclusions applied and the verification performed provides evidence of good-faith compliance, which matters if questions ever arise. Advertisers should additionally remember that the platform policy and the underlying legality of the product are separate matters; complying with Google's ad rules does not resolve legal questions about the product itself, which require legal counsel. Because Google sets and updates enforcement practices, advertisers should verify the current policy and its consequences against Google's official Prediction markets policy rather than relying on summaries. Track policy and enforcement changes on the Policy Change Tracker and standardize campaign checks with the AI Compliance Audit. The organizing principle is that prohibited ads risk disapproval and, on repetition or seriousness, account-level enforcement, so advertisers should prevent prohibited delivery through verified exclusions rather than react to rejections.

Could Google add more states to the prediction markets prohibition, and how should advertisers prepare?

Yes — Google could add more states to the prediction markets prohibition, because the restriction is location-specific and reflects an evolving state-by-state regulatory landscape, so advertisers should prepare by treating geographic compliance as an ongoing, monitored process rather than a one-time configuration. The structure of the policy itself signals this. Google did not impose a global ban on prediction markets advertising; it prohibited such ads in specific states — Michigan and New York as of July 13, 2026 — which is the same location-based approach it uses for other regulated categories. That approach exists precisely because the legal status of these products varies by jurisdiction and is still developing. As additional states reach their own conclusions about whether particular prediction market products function as gambling within their borders, it is reasonable to expect that the list of locations where Google prohibits these ads could grow. The addition of Michigan and New York is best understood as a current snapshot, not a final list. Given that dynamic, the right preparation is to build monitoring and adaptability into the advertiser's compliance process. Concretely, advertisers in this category should establish a routine to track updates to Google's Prediction markets policy, so that when a new state is added they can respond quickly by extending their location exclusions to cover it. They should also structure their campaigns so that adding an excluded state is a straightforward operational change rather than a scramble — for example, by maintaining a clear inventory of which campaigns promote prediction markets or related products, so the full set can be updated together whenever the policy changes. Keeping the 'related products' scope in mind is important here too, since an expansion of restricted states applies across that broader category, not just to narrowly defined contracts. Beyond Google specifically, advertisers should recognize that other advertising platforms may take similar location-based approaches, and that the underlying legal landscape — separate from any platform's ad policy — is itself in flux and warrants legal advice. The overarching mindset is that compliance in this category is not a fixed state but a moving target: the advertisers who stay compliant are those who monitor, maintain an accurate campaign inventory, and adjust their geographic exclusions as the policy evolves. Map jurisdiction exposure with the Legal Compliance Scan, monitor changes on the Policy Change Tracker, and verify the current restricted-locations list against Google's official Prediction markets policy. The organizing principle is that the prohibition can expand as more states act, so advertisers should treat geographic compliance as a monitored, adaptable process and be ready to extend exclusions quickly.

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#Google Ads#Prediction Markets#Gambling Policy#Geo-Targeting#Ad Compliance#State Regulation#Prohibited Content#Platform Policy#Advertisers#Agencies#2026 Policy#Compliance Guide 2026

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Google Ads Prohibits Prediction Markets Advertising in Michigan and New York from July 2026: A State-Level Compliance Guide for Advertisers